Tuesday, April 2, 2013

2/4/2013: US Mint Gold Coins vs Gold Prices

In the previous post I covered some Q1 2013 trends in US Mint gold coins sales and mentioned correlations between spot price of gold and volume of coinage gold sold. Here's a bit more beef on the latter.

As charts above clearly show, there is not much of a statistically significant relationship between price of gold and volumes of coinage gold demanded, neither in levels terms, nor growth terms. Which, of course, strongly suggests that the demand for coinage gold is based on longer-term considerations than those underpinned by simple price reactions.

Looking at H1 data over the same time horizon confirms the main observation:

There is zero relationship in smoother data (H1 cumulated) between demand for coinage and price of gold, while there is a relatively weak positive correlation between demand for gold content per coin purchased and the price of gold.

Key point here is that there is absolutely no hard evidence that gold coins demand is bubble-prone or bubble-driven.
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