Not exactly good news, and not exactly earth-shattering either, but...
The point worth raising is that if Enda & Co do achieve restructuring of our Troika loans, they would de facto deliver a restructuring of Ireland's super-sovereign debt. This raises a number of issues:
- Why are we seeking restructuring super-senior sovereign debt ahead of seeking to restructure non-sovereign debt, such as, for example banks debts?
- If restructuring were to materially impact our long-term debt profile by lowering the NPV of our debt, would this not qualify as a 'structured' or 'cooperative' default? I know - the matter here is not material, but rather a label, yet don't we have a Government that staunchly refuses to default on private debts assumed by the State and then goes for a default (or even quasi-default) on super-senior debt?
These questions closely relate to the work I have done over the recent years on Irish Government debt and most directly to my chapter in What if Ireland Defaults? (link the chapter in a working paper format here: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1985617)