Friday, January 4, 2013

4/1/2013: Major economies PMIs for December 2012

Global PMI snapshot:

Previously covered:

Some top line performance for the global economy:

  • US Manufacturing: December 50.7 from November 49.5 - statistically not significant as above 50 reading, so a shallow positive, with a swing of 1.2 ppts being a good indicator of gradual strengthening. New orders static at 50.3 and employment gains at 52.7 in December against 48.4 (contraction) in November.
  • Germany: 46.0 in December a deterioration on already abysmal 46.8 reading in November. Clear contraction territory. 
  • France: 44.6 in December after 44.5 in November - an outright recession.
  • Italy: 46.7 in December on 45.1 in November - falling off the cliff at a slightly reduced rate.
  • UK: 51.4 in December on 49.2 in November - expansion, albeit moderate in December.
  • Japan: 45.0 in December, worse than already recessionary November reading of 46.5.
  • China: 50.6 in December, unchanged on November - both not statistically significantly different from 50.0. Employment continues to contract: 49.0 in December on 48.7 in November, while New Orders are growing at 51.2 in both months - modest growth rate.
  • Brazil: 51.1 in December on 52.2 in November - signalling slowdown in already weak growth in November.
So Manufacturing sector is pretty ugly.

  • US: to 56.1 in December from 54.7 in November, confirming strong growth trend. Employment at 56.3 in December - a robust uplift, on top of relatively static 50.3 in November. New Orders rising to blistering 59.3 in December from 58.1 in November.
  • Euro area: to 47.8 in December from 46.7 in November - both signalling contraction
  • Germany: bucking the trend for the euro area to 52.0 in December from 49.7 in November, with now moderate expansion
  • In contrast to Germany, France went deeper into contraction territory: 45.2 in December against 45.8 in November.
  • Italy matched France and raised: 44.6 in December (a depression-level reading) from 46.0 in November (a recession reading).
  • UK stumbled: 48.9 in December (mild contraction) against 50.2 (effectively flat) in November.
  • China: robust 56.1 in December on foot of strong 55.6 in November
  • Brazil slightly less impressive, but stil positive: 53.5 in December relative to 52.5 in November.
So Services are all over the shop with the euro area remaining the Ugly of the Bad.
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