I covered the latest data on sovereign yields from the CMA quarterly report for Q4 2012 here.
However, euro area remains a global (that's right - global) growth laggard on par with the gravely sick Japan - as the IMF latest WEO update clearly shown (see details here).
And here are the most up-to-date data on leading economic growth indicator from CEPR and Banca d'Italia - the eurocoin - for January 2013:
- In January 2013 eurocoin stood at -0.23, an improvement on -0.27 in December 2012 and the highest reading since June 2012, but still in the negative territory.
- January marked 16th consecutive month of below zero reading in eurocoin and based on historical trends, this gives us forecast for the euro area economic growth of -0.4% in Q4 2012 and same for January 2013.
- In 2008-2009 recession, eurocoin average reading stood at -0.31. In 6 months period through January 2013, the average reading is at -0.29.
- Ominously, while in 2008-2009 recession period, average ECB rate stood at 2.54%, last 6 months average rate was 0.75%, suggesting that easing of monetary conditions has little effect on the real economy.
The next set of charts shows that the ECB policy remains in a bizarre no-man's land of neither delivering price 'stability' target (close to, but below 2%), nor supporting growth.
So no easing of the real economic crisis in sight and no signs of the euro 'saviour' ECB when it comes to dealing with the growth collapse.