Russian economy quick summary of some latest stats and some disconnected ideas:
- Q3 2012 real GDP +2.9% y/y down from +4% in Q2 and +4.9% in Q1 2012.
- Expected Q4 2012 GDP growth +2.5%
- November 2012 GDP growth of +1.9% y/y inflation-adjusted
- Q1-Q3 2012 GDP +3.5% y/y
- Q3 2012 consumption +5.1% y/y down from +6.9% in Q2
- Expected full year consumption growth +4% y/y.
- Consumer confidence down to lowest in 18 months (since Q2 2011) in Q4 2012 at -8, Q3 2012 reading was -6.
- Industrial production is up +1.9% y/y in November, manufacturing activity +4%, manufacturing PMI at lowest level in 14 months in December at 50.0
- Services PMI down to 56.1, from 57.1 in November
- Composite PMI at 54.1 - a 4 months low.
Inflation is still a major headache for the Central Bank Rossii, with the level above the target, despite being close to historical lows:
- Headline inflation at 6.6% in December against 6.1% y/y in 2011, making 2012 the second best year in terms of inflation in over 20 years.
- Food inflation is 4.4% for 2012, tobacco up 21.2%. 6% crops failure due to drought in 2012 is taking the blame. Non-food inflation was 5.6% and services inflation at 5.4%.
- Meat and poultry led food inflation (+8.3%), brad and eggs prices up 6.2%.
- Alcoholic beverages prices were up 10.1%
Some consumption trends - food:
- 2012 per capita food consumption (local currency) = +8.7%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2016 = +10.2%
- 2012 beer volume sales = +2.8%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +2.9%
- 2012 mass grocery retail sales (local currency) = +24.4%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +28%
- 2012 capital outflow stood at $56.8bn - the fourth highest yearly outflow since collapse of the USSR, with $9.4 billion outflows in Q4 2012, up on Q3 outflows of $7.6bn and Q2 outflows of $6.4bn, but down on massive $33.3bn outflows in Q1 2012.
- Net outflows were now recorded every year since 2007.
- Banks recorded an inflow of $23.6bn in 2012, in part pushed up by privatization of Sberbank ($5.2bn)
- Net outflows in non-banking sectors of economy amounted to $80.4bn in 2012.
- Recent decisions to open rubles-denominated bonds sales to foreign investors via Euroclear Bank and Clearstream International will continue pushing yields down. Renaissance Capital estimated recently that OFZs (ruble-denominated state bonds) yields can fall 50-80bps in 2013
- In 2012, OFZs returned 1.12% against 0.38% for Brazil, 1.36% for India and 0.03% for China.