Saturday, December 1, 2012

1/12/2012: Ireland - still the second worst banking sector in EA

Another Euromoney risk survey on and the results for the banking sector are out:

Ireland's banking sector zombies are ranked as 4th least safe in the entire Europe of 37 countries. Next to Greece (3rd least safe), and Macedonia (1 place ahead of Ireland - 5th least safe). Iceland, having defaulted and demolished its banks, ranks 7th least safe. Note, Ireland remains the second weakest banking sector in the EA17.

Of course, our 'leaders' would say that yes, things are bad, but they are improving... hmm...

Are they? Well, sort of. Ireland's score (higher score, greater systemic stability) have risen in 11 months of 2012, but the rise was far from spectacular. Ireland's improvement in the score is 7th largest in the sample, behind that for Iceland.

Ireland's gap to the peers (Advanced Small Open Economies) in overall score is about 4.4 points. 11 months of heroic Government reforms have yielded a gain of 0.2 points in Irish position, and the deterioration in the overall euro area climate has resulted in a decline in the average ASOE score of 0.07 points. This means the spread improved in favour of Ireland by less than 0.3 points in 11 months - a rate of 'reforms' that can close the current gap, assuming continued deterioration in ASOE average, over  161 months. In other words, unless the 'reforms' in Ireland's banks start bearing fruit much faster than they have done in 11 months of 2012 so far, it will take us 13.4 years to reach ASOE average levels of banking system stability.

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