Sunday, November 11, 2012

11/11/2012: Property prices bust 2008-2012


House prices changes peak-to-2009 then 2009-present:


Via Goldman Sachs.

With core driver - fundamentals:


Note Spain (my analysis): fundamentals-driven house prices are yet to travel down to below Irish markets drop... This, of course, is not a precise fully deterministic model (feed-back loops from unemployment to house prices are also going from house prices to unemployment), but it is clear that Spanish property is still 'overvalued' grossly relative to fundamentals.

And here's some other 'bad' news:
Taking the comparative above (again, my reading of the chart), a combination of fiscal direction and debt levels implies Irish house prices are still overvalued by up to 20% or so. Spanish ones - by about 10-15%...

Full note here.

Note: these are not my forecasts. I am only pointing out the direction that the above figures above imply in my view for the property markets.

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