Monday, September 24, 2012

24/9/2012: Irish Building & Construction Sector Activity Q2 2012


And in another post prompted by @stephenkinsella tweet, here's an update on CSO data for Irish Building & Construction sector activity:

Ex-Civil Engineering:

  • Value index fell to 17.6 in Q2 2012 from 18.7 in Q1 2012, marking 5.88% decline q/q and down 15% y/y.
  • H1 2012 Value index is down 12.11% on H2 2011 and down 13.78% on H1 2011.
  • Value index fell to 15.5% relative to the peak and volume index declined to 14.66% of the peak level
  • Volume index dropped to 15.6 in Q2 2012 down on 16.7 in Q1 2012, marking a 6.59% decline q/q and 16.6% decline y/y. 
  • H1 2012 volume index was down 13.17% on H2 2011 and down 14.55% on H1 2011.
  • Both Value and Volume indices are now down on an annual basis for 22 consecutive quarters.


Civil Engineering:
  • Value of Civil Engineering activity rose from 58.4 in Q1 2012 to 62.7 in Q2 2012 (+7.36% q/q) and advanced 11/4% y/y, registering the first annual rate of increase after 15 quarters of contraction.
  • H1 2012 value index rose +1.68% on H2 2011 and is up 5.21% on H1 2011.
  • Volume of activity also grew from 52.3 in Q1 2012 to 55.8 in Q2 2012 (+6.69% q/q and +9.8% y/y) also breaking for the first time annualized contraction period of 18 quarters.
  • H1 2012 volume index rose 0.93% on H2 2011 and is up 4.75% on H1 2011.


Residential and non-residential:

  • Residential construction value index fell from 9.1 in Q1 2012 to 8.6 in Q2 2012 (-15.7% y/y and -5.49% q/q). H1 2012 index was down 9.69% on H2 2011 and down 16.51% on H1 2011. Relative to peak, the index is now down 92.45%.
  • Residential construction volume index fell to 7.7 in Q2 2012 from 8.3 in Q1 2012 (decline of 7.23% q/q and down 17.2% y/y). The index is now down 92.53% on peak.
  • Non-residential construction value index fell from 55.4 in Q1 2012 to 51.5 in Q2 2012 (-14.7% y/y and -7.04% q/q). H1 2012 index was down 14.41% on H2 2011 and down 12.23% on H1 2011. Relative to peak, the index is now down 58.23%.
  • Non-residential construction volume index fell from 49.4 in Q1 2012 to 46.0 in Q2 2012 (-15.8% y/y and -6.88% q/q). H1 2012 index was down 15.12% on H2 2011 and down 12.48% on H1 2011. Relative to peak, the index is now down 58.89%.




To sum up: rates of decline are (annually) in double digits and/or accelerating in Q2 2012 in Residential (value and volume), Non-residential (value and volume) and ex-Civil Engineering (value and volume). Residential construction is now at 8.6% of 2005 levels in value terms and 7.7% of 2005 levels in volume terms. Non-residential construction is now at 51.5% of 2005 levels in value terms and 46% in volume terms. Civil Engineering activity is now at 62.7% of 2005 levels in value terms and at 55.8% in volume terms. All activity ex-civil engineering is now down to 17.6% of 2005 levels in value terms and 15.6% in volume terms.
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