Saturday, September 15, 2012

15/9/2012: Derivatives v Banks Lending and Economic Growth

A recent by Becchetti, Leonardo and Ciampoli, Nicola, What is New in the Finance-Growth Nexus: OTC Derivatives, Bank Assets and Growth (July 20, 2012). CEIS Working Paper No. 243 (Available at SSRN: covers the issue of "finance-growth nexus before and around the global financial crisis using for the first time OTC derivative data in growth estimates."

According to the authors, data shows "that bank assets contribute… negatively [to economic growth], while OTC derivative positively or insignificantly with a much smaller effect in magnitude. At the same time the impact of the crisis is captured by a very strong negative effect of year dummies around the event."

The study lists various positive and negative channels for feedback from the derivatives to growth and establishes the net effect of these channels.

"Our main finding is therefore the identification of three empirical channels: a first positive and weak link between OTC trading and economic growth, a second negative and significant link between aggregate bank credit and economic growth (larger in magnitude than the first) and the negative impact of the global financial crises in the last years of our sample period. The first channel is likely to capture wealth and efficiency effects embedded in derivatives hedging properties. An overall evaluation of the role of derivatives on growth deserves however further attention. If the negative impact of bank credit, and definitely more so, the overall negative effect of the financial crisis have to be related to the negative properties of derivatives (increase of interconnectedness and systemic risk) the net impact of the latter may turn out to be negative at least in the current regulatory framework."

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