Thursday, June 28, 2012

28/6/2012: Retail Sector Activity Index for May 2012

Updating my own Retail Sector Activity Index for May 2012 on the foot of the latest CSO data:

Courtesy of the ESRI Consumer Confidence Index staying above 60 in May (the index dipped from 62.5 in April to 61 in May, marking the third consecutive month of readings above 60 despite continued gloom in actual retail sales), my overall Retail Sector Activity Index - a forward-looking indicator for the sector - remained relatively flat at 108.2 against 108.4 in May despite rises, m/m in core retail sales in volume (98.4 in April to 99.2 in May) and value (95.5 in April to 96.2 in May) terms.

It is perhaps interesting to note in the data in the first chart above that according to the ESRI surveys, Irish consumers do not lack any confidence. In fact, they appear to be lacking realism. Current 6mo average of the ESRI index reads 57.8 which is actually above the previous 6mo average of 57.5. One has to assume things had improved in the latest six months period on previous six months, alas both retail sales volumes (remained flat) and values (declined) do not confirm this. Year on year, Consumer Confidence is up 2.7% while core sales are up only 1.6% in value and just 0.8% in volume.
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