Wednesday, February 29, 2012

29/02/2012: New Old Mini Budget?

Having predicted in my comments on Budget 2012 that we are likely to see an Emergency Budget 2012 closer to half-year results, I thought I was making just a risk assessment, backed by the confusion prompted by the DofF release of two rather significantly distinct forecasts for growth between two days of the Budget 2012 announcement. And now this.

Of course, the development of Budget 2012 took place under the assumed growth rate x2 of what is now being forecast by the IMF, the OECD & the EU Comm and roughly x3 times what is being predicted by other markets participants. My own forecast range is for -0.2 to 0.5 percent growth which at the upper range puts it at roughly 1/3 of the Budget assumptions. These developments since Budget 2012 release bound to rationally drive the Troika to push for revaluation, but one must wonder why on Earth would these not be made public to the people of Ireland? Why do we have to learn this from a leaked document from Germany?


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