Here's the data:
- Borrowing from the euro system by IRL5 has risen from €68,430mln in August to €70,340mln in September. Year on year, this is still down 4.73% or €3,489mln, but at that rate of unwinding IRL6 liabilities to euro system will take, oh, some 20 years (!)... Mom, the increase in borrowing from the euro system was €1,910mln or more than 50% of the reductions achieved yoy.
- Deposits from Irish residents in IRL6 were up from €192,431mln in August to €193,929mln in September, prompting cheers from the Irish Times and Department of Finance, among others. Mom rise of 0.78% or €1,498mln contrasts a 22.22% decline yoy in very same deposits or €55,393mln loss. In other words, to get us back to September 2010 levels (not exactly healthy ones) at current rate of mom increase would take 37 months. In the last three months, on average, deposits were down €26,337mln compared to 3 months through June 2011 (-12.05%).
- The mystery of rising deposits is explained easily by looking at their composition: Monetary and financial institutions (aka other banks) have seen their deposits in IRL5 rising €1,298mln in September (+1.47%) mom, although these deposits are down €32,308mln or -26.53% yoy. This explains 87% of the entire increase in the overall deposits.
- In addition, General government deposits also rose €333mln in September (+16.28%) mom, explaining the remainder of the rise in overall deposits, heralded by our Green Jerseys as 'signs of improvement/stabilization' in Irish banks.
- In contrast to the above two sub-categories, private sector deposits in Irish banks (IRL 5) have shrunk in September by €133mln (-0.13%) mom and are down 18.12% (-€22,589mln) yoy. September marked 5th consecutive month of declines in private sector deposits, which have shrunk by €6,135mln since April 2011.
As chart above illustrates:
- Overall LTD ratio for IRL5 at the end of September 2011 stood at 151.72% - below August reading of 153.04%, but well ahead of March 2011 reading of 143.25% and certainly much ahead of the target of 125.5%.
- For private sector loans and deposits, LTD ratio was 174.61% in September - ahead of 174.29% in August and still above 173.71% back in March.
And the summary is: there's no real stabilization or improvement I can spot in the above for IRL5.