Headline numbers are for implied standardised unemployment rate which is up in June to 14.2% from 14.1% in May. Remember, this change is reflective of the past adjustments made to the Live Register-implied standardised unemployment rate made on the foot of latest QNHS-derived official unemployment rate which in Q1 2011 stood at 14.0%.
- Standardized unemployment rate was driven up by 2,900 new entrants to seasonally adjusted LR (+0.7% mom)
- Overall in June 2011 there were 457,948 people signing on the Live Register (not seasonally adjusted) -- an increase of 5,066 (+1.1%) yoy. In May 2011, yoy increase was 3,025 (+0.7%)
- Increase in the first 6 months of the year was 37,420(+9.0%) relative to the first six months of 2010. Obviously, that is down from a massive jump of 194,651 (+88.2%) in Live Register for the first six months period between 2009 and 2010
Some other results from the latest release:
- Seasonally adjusted, there was a monthly increases of 2,000 males and 900 females, but year on year the number of females on LR has risen by 3.8% (+5,975) while the number of males is down 0.3% (-909). In the six months through June 2010, 15,797 (+11.3%) females were added to the LR against 21,623 (+7.9%) males
- Perhaps expected, but extremely worrisome is the rise of long term claimants by 49,448 in the year to June 2011, in the words of CSO: "bringing to 40.8% the number of claimants that have now been on the Live Register for one year or more. In June 2010 long term claimants made up just over 30% of the total Live Register." The problem with is that long duration of unemployment spell implies structural unemployment, with requisite loss of skills, continuity of experience and subsequently reduced employability.
- Youth unemployment has eased somewhat in June. LR for those under 25 years of age has fallen 4,500 year on year (-5.18%), but zero percent mom. In May 2011, yoy decline in this category was 4,800 (-5.50%), so not exactly an improving trend here. But at least some good news. In contrast, LR for those 25 years of age and over increased 9,500 yoy (+2.68%), against May 2011 yoy increase of 7,600 (+2.15%).
- Numbers of casual and part-time workers on LR increased 6,526 yoy (+8.23%) in June, up from the increase of 6,058 (+7.68%) in May, suggesting that the overall quality of employment gained by LR signees is low. Current 3mo average yoy rise is 8.04% against previous 3mo average rise of 7.82%. Not dramatic, but certainly not signaling any improvement in jobs creation quality.
- Lastly, the numbers of non-Irish nationals on LR has risen by 76 in June 2011 relative to June 2010 (+0.1%) while the number of Irish nationals was up 4,990 (+1.33%). In May 2011, yoy changes in these two groups were: -1,091 (-1.40%) and +4,116 (1.14%). 3mo averages also suggest strong divergence in LR in favour of lower non-Irish nationals participation and higher Irish nationals participation.