Sunday, March 27, 2011

27/03/2011: Annual GDP and GNP - few lessons to be learned

I haven't had time to update QNA numbers on the blog, but here's a nice preview charts of analysis to come.

First annual GDP and GNP:
When I often say that over the last 3 years we've lost a war, I mean it: relative to peak 2007 levels, our real GDP is down 12%, our GNP is down 16%. Our 2010 GNP clocked the level of 2003-2004 average, erasing 7 years of growth. Our GDP is now at the level of 2004-2005.

What about the composition of our GDP and GNP?

The above is just a snapshot. Here are headline figures:
  • Agriculture, forestry & fishing sector output in constant prices is now 10% down on 2007 (remember - we were supposedly having a boom in this sector in 2010 according to the various CAP-dependent quangoes, and still the preliminary output came out at a miserly €3,328 million - the lowest in 8 years).
  • Industry had a better year, with output rising to €48,111 million, up on €45,841 million in 2009, but still 7% down on 2007.
  • Building & construction sector shrunk 58% on 2007 levels, posting output worth just €5,754 million in 2010, down on €8,433 million in already abysmal 2009.
  • Distribution, Transport and Communications sector shrunk 13% in 2010 relative to 2007. 2010 sector output was €21,509 million against 2009 level of €21,845 million.
  • Other services have fared better than other sectors, posting a decline of 6% on 2007 levels. In 2010 the sector brought into this economy €71,828 million against €73,823 million recorded in 2009.
  • Public Administration and Defence - the sector that has been allegedly (per our Government and Unions claims) hit very hard by the austerity has managed to "contribute" €6,243 million in 2010 - slightly down on €6,416 million in real euros in 2009. Relative to peak 2007 levels, Public Administration and Defence "contribution" to our GDP/GNP has fallen by a whooping ZERO percent. That's right - zero percent. In 2007 the 'sector' posted GDP contribution of €6,266 million.
  • Taxes, net of subsidies, have fallen 31% in 2010 relative to 2007 and 'contributed' just €16,027 million in 2010 compared to €16,807 million in 2009. Tax hikes are working marvels for the Government, then. Keep on the course, Captain!
  • Net Factor Income from the Rest of the World has increased steadily from 2007 levels, posting an outflow of -€29,313 million in 2010, up on outflow of -€28,184 in 2009 and a massive 31% above 2007 levels. These outflows represent the GDP/GNP gap that has expanded from 15.17% local minimum in 2006 to 21.67% today.
Now, let's take a look at percentage contributions to GDP and GNP from each line of QNA:
So while economy shrunk, Public Administration and Defence grew in overall importance as a share of GDP.
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