All data for January-February is showing that the pressures of jobless recoveries around the world, coupled with continued weaknesses in financial sector and money supply (despite unprecedented stimulus deployment and helicopter drops - more like blanket bombings - of liquidity) are over-powering the weak positive momentum in growth.
Sector data indicated that capital and intermediate goods fared best in January. Growth consumer goods production is falling below that achieved in the previous month.
Growth of new orders was the strongest since June 2007 and faster than the earlier flash estimate. The gain in the index between its flash and final releases was the greatest since flash PMI data were first compiled at the start of 2006. New export orders rose at an above flash estimate pace that was the quickest since August 2007. See Ireland PMI in my Sunday Times article this week.
Overall, this recovery is coming along with more stress and strain on the labour markets. All global indicators are now appearing to have peaked back in Q4 2009, with the new year starting on downward trajectory. Inventory cuts passed in previous quarters are now being worked out and there is little sign this process will be picked up by a structural increase in new orders. All in, jobs growth is now severely lagging that achieved in the end of the previous recessions. In this environment, growth favours the