Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Economics 03/02/2010: Live Register for January

You've heard the numbers on Live Register results by now, no doubt. A summary, courtesy of CSO:
Here are few charts:
Having breached 430,000 marker this time around, the LR is back on the upward trajectory. As predicted. And with it - unemployment rate:
At 12.7%, we are now in December 1994 territory. Officially, all Celtic Tiger gains in terms of reduced unemployment are now gone. Some 14 years worth of hard labour gone within a span of just 21 months.

Oh, and in case you've heard that we are now doing soooo much better than in January 2009:
It is true - in January 2009, unadjusted LR was rising by 7,251 per week, this January it was rising by 'only' 2,668 per week. Yet, three things worth mentioning:
  1. In January 2008 the rate of increases in LR was 2,768 per week - just 100 shy of January 2010;
  2. This January saw the highest unadjusted increase per week since July 2009; and
  3. Remember - the latest increases are ameliorated by two factors not present in previous years - already high unemployment (meaning that the number of jobs to be cut should be really declining) and high rate of workers outflow from the labour force.
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